Generous Arithmetic

On May 14, when the league reported that CBC was averaging 1,860,000 viewers through the first two rounds of the playoffs, I couldn’t figure out why my calculations were only showing 1,835,000 over the same span of 37 telecasts. That is, until I discovered that the NHL and its broadcasting partners were presenting somewhat distorted numbers – in their favour of course – when issuing periodic updates about how “well” this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs have been doing in the television ratings department.

Take April 27 as an example. On this date, the public broadcaster issued a press release to announce that its round one average audience was 1,422,000. On average, CBC claimed that its Senators-Penguins series drew 2,000,000 per game, its Kings-Canucks matchup brought-in 2,031,000, its Avalanche-Sharks duel attracted 825,000, and its Bruins-Sabres tilt interested 736,000. But anyone bothering to take out a calculator and determine a weighted average for the four series (each of which lasted six games) would find that these numbers do not average 1,422,000 but, rather, 1,398,000. Even worse for CBC, the Senators-Penguins series really drew 1,965,000 viewers and not the rounded 2,000,000 figure, meaning that the public broadcaster’s true average audience for the first round was only 1,389,250 as opposed to the inflated 1,422,000. CBC’s generous arithmetic attributed an extra 32,750 viewers per game than were really watching. Over the entire 24-game sequence, this amounted to an aggregate audience overestimate of 786,000 – more than the average for the Bruins-Sabres series! No wonder the NHL reported a 1,860,000 average after two rounds as opposed to the 1,835,000 that I had calculated!

Fast forward exactly one month to May 27. This time, the NHL says that, through the first three rounds of the playoffs, CBC is averaging 1,950,000 viewers per game. Even if we take the inflated 1,860,000 figure as an accurate starting point after two rounds, the NHL’s numbers are still over the top. CBC’s third round coverage consisted of the entire Eastern Final, which drew an average of 2,673,000 over five games, and one game in the Western Final, which drew 1,257,000. Weighted with the 1,860,000 figure after two rounds (37 telecasts), these numbers only produce an average of 1,940,535 after three rounds (43 telecasts) – not 1,950,000. But, of course, the 1,860,000 figure was an over-estimate to begin with – using the real figure of 1,835,000 after two rounds would yield an average of 1,919,023. Again, this represents more than an “extra” 30,000 viewers per game.

The NHL and its broadcasting partners should be ashamed of themselves for publishing these twisted figures. Journalists should equally hang their heads for not having enough integrity to get out a calculator and verify a few numbers.

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